Well, yesterday was a bit of a disaster. Thankfully, I wasn’t the only person to get absolutely smashed up by the bookies – friends like Charles, AKA ProfProfitable, had no winners (and just look at his stat line – a healthy 20% ROI over the last two and a bit years). One bookmaker friend told me that their company saved/made approximately £40k with Benie Des Dieux’s fall at the last. They’re not a big company – for reference, they’ve only relatively recently had the capital to offer Best Odds Guaranteed – and this was huge for them.
So, we go again ahead of Wednesday, where Altior takes centre stage in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. I can’t wait to see him run. But there’s plenty of other stuff to look forward to, so here are my thoughts!
Ballymore
A good race for value hunting to kick off, especially with William Hill paying five places at 1/5 odds. I’ll be using Hills exclusively for tips in this race.
I’ll be starting with the excellent Davy Russell aboard Galvin (16/1), who is undefeated under rules (3-3 in hurdles). His wins at a shorter distance, albeit in lesser company, have shown signs of staying on well, with decent response to pressure and urging. The pedigree (dam won between 2m4f and 3m4f), too, suggests the step up in trip will suit.
Also on the list goes City Island (8/1), who we take for win purposes. His prep has been low-key, but he looks to have won fairly easily on all three runs this year (I’m including the disqualification). Intriguingly, Venetia Williams highlighted at a preview night that he’s been trained with this race in mind and is owned by the race’s sponsors. The downside, though, is that Tom Segal likes this one, and his record on horses shorter than 11/1 is awful. But hey, a broken clock is right twice a day, so here’s hoping.
I’m going to have one more choice given the generous place offer here, and that’s Beakstown (12/1). I was put on to this by Charles/ProfProfitable a few weeks back, for many good reasons. His jumping at Warwick was near perfect, and he set the track record there. That race has produced quality such as The New One, Willoughby Court, Inglis Drever, and more who have won this race. Harry Skelton has said he has the potential to be one of the best he’s ridden. With Champ, Battleoverdoyen, and Easy Game (Ruby’s pick) the likely popular betting choices, I reckon Beakstown is a great value play.
Obviously, the two at the head of the market are worthy of their place, while Olly Murphy rates Brewin’upastorm as one of his two best Festival chances (the other, Itchy Feet, placed yesterday). At big prices, if you want to hedge further, go with Dunvegan (33/1) whose Dublin Festival run was due to lameness, and he still travelled well there.
RSA Chase
I think this race has been priced up well, and I think the leading contenders could well fill the places, which is unimaginative of me. As a result, I’ll be wanting a small interest in Now McGinty with BetVictor (25/1 each way, 1/5 1-4), who loves to front-run and has been fluent over the fences. The stamina is there, the battle is there, and hopefully the conditions can prove to be a leveller for him.
If I were to pick a win only option, I’d go with Joseph O’Brien’s suggestion of Delta Work (15/8 fav at time of writing), who he said was a good thing at the Betfair preview night last week, especially with all the drama over Santini. Topofthegame is still progressive and will have a huge say, but I don’t think he’s quite as good as Delta Work, nor – being English – will he relish the inclement conditions as much.
Coral Cup
Yes! Lots of bookies offering lots of places! This is exactly what we want for each-way punts. And for my mind, the absolute best of them is Ballyandy (20/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-5 – I want the better place odds with one less place offered than some bookies). He has rarely been out of the frame this year, with his PU easily excused after being really badly hampered. Two placed efforts and a win in fields of 10-14 runners, never more than 4.5L behind the winner (one of whom was 10/1 shot Brio Conti, worth looking at in this race), makes it very conceivable that he’ll place.
I will also be having an interest in Erick Le Rouge (22/1 each way with Paddy Power, 1/5 1-7!), who beat Ballyandy when they last met, and has progressed ever since. They’re both overpriced horses and… Well, it’d be rude not to take advantage of the seven places for Erick Le Rouge!
The Coral Cup can be a trends race though, and the Owner/Trainer/Jockey Handicap 2008-2018 Analysis Thread on the Fat Jockey forum points to Willie Mullins in this race (and of course, Davy Russell in general). To that end, Uradel at 5s, while way too short, is a huge shout for winner, as is Killultagh Vic who lurks on a great mark. Mullins also fields Scarpeta, Wicklow Brave, Bleu Berry, and Calie Du Mesnil, all of whom are at 20s or above (at time of writing). Maybe worth a go on the last-named, with the others all having question marks around their form this year.
Champion Chase
What is there to say about the wonderful Altior that hasn’t already been said? He’s a prodigious talent and even though the minimum chase trip can always throw a spanner in the works, I can’t oppose him for the win even at prohibitively short odds. I’m not having a bet on this race, but the Altior-Min forecast was agreed upon by most panellists at one of the preview nights last week. For an each way shout, God’s Own at 33/1 isn’t that bad, if you’re looking.
Cross Country Chase
Tiger Roll is at the head of the market and even money for very, very good reason. However, his natural gameness may have led to what could prove to be a damaging run last time out, over 2m5f hurdles – quite an outlying performance, and I don’t know if it will prove to be the right prep run.
He’s obviously too short to tip, or nap, or anything, so I’m going to head to one of my favourite horses in Bless The Wings (33/1 each way with BetVictor, 1/5 1-4, for the extra place) to oppose. He’s getting on at the age of 14, but until last year’s festival he’d never F or UR – and last year was basically a stumble. He’s off levels now and these terms are certainly more favourable than the handicap over C&D in December.
Amazing Comedy, the French raider, is a very interesting prospect, while Ballycasey will be sure to run his race, and Josies Orders loves cross-country running.
Fred Winter
I’m not the most knowledgeable bloke, I’ll freely admit that. So, immediately for this, I go back to that excellent Fat Jockey thread linked above, and the one summary reference to the Fred Winter is back Paul Nicholls. He’s consistent and likes to have winners in this race – 3 in the last 9 years, in fact. So, to see him with only one runner in Dogon (25/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-5) is interesting. It’s a minefield of a race, though, so stakes will be small and hedged on Dogon as well as Praeceps (22/1 each way with Bet365 as above). This ex-flat performer has blinkers refitted – all Flat wins came with them on – and the track should help.
This is an absolute minefield of a race though, so do excuse me for small and tentative each-way pokes. I’d pick out a couple of others to mention, but there are just so many in what is a typically wide-open race.
Champion Bumper
I don’t like betting on this race, or indeed bumpers in general, so I’ve not paid much attention to it. Envoi Allen is a horse I speculatively backed ante-post, but he’s too short now. We’ll have a cursory bet on Ask For Glory though, who Davy Russell said was the most impressive point-to-point winner he’s seen, and who Megan Nicholls says her dad is desperate to see run – a rarity, as he doesn’t usually like this race either.
Tips Summary
1.30 – Galvin @ 16/1 – 0.5pts e/w (William Hill, 1/5 1-5)
1.30 – City Island @ 8/1 – 1pt win
1.30 – Beakstown @ 12/1 – 0.75pts e/w (terms as above)
2.10 – Now McGinty @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (BetVictor, 1/5 1-4)
2.50 – Ballyandy @ 20/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-5)
2.50 – Erick Le Rouge @ 22/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Paddy Power, 1/5 1-7)
4.10 – Bless The Wings @ 33/1 – 0.5pts e/w (BetVictor, 1/5 1-4)
4.50 – Dogon @ 25/1 – 0.25pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-5)
4.50 – Praeceps @ 22/1 – 0.25pts e/w (terms as above)
5.30 – Ask For Glory @ 8/1 – 0.5pts win
Nine points in play. Let’s make coin.
The Value Burglar 